For BJP, Kedarnath is litmus test of ‘continuing popularity’

Dehradun, 28 Oct: Kedarnath Assembly By-election is an issue of high stakes for BJP as well as for Congress. While by retaining this seat, the BJP will want to project that its popularity in the state and the popularity of its government in the state remains intact, the Congress by winning this seat will like to keep up the momentum that it had received in the recently held assembly byelections in Manglaur and Badrinath. In Kedarnath, the assembly by-election has been necessitated because of passing away of sitting MLA Shaila Rani Rawat and hence it is crucial for the BJP to retain the seat. In Badrinath, the assembly election had been necessitated rather due to an immature political decision of the BJP and the embarrassment it caused to the BJP was entirely avoidable.

It may be recalled that BJP was wooing the sitting Congress MLA Rajendra Singh Bhandari from Badrinath who was made to resign from his seat before the Lok Sabha polls and join the BJP. However, the BJP faced embarrassment as in the by-election that ensued, the outgoing MLA could not manage to retain his seat as a BJP leader this time. Congress candidate Lakhpat Butola, easily managed to win the seat though, in the Lok Sabha election, BJP had managed comfortable majority in this assembly segment.

It seems that BJP has learnt from its mistake and for the Kedarnath by-poll, it has chosen the candidate after much deliberations and calculation of political risks involved. Among the contenders for the party ticket from Kedarnath, were Aishwarya Rawat, the daughter of late MLA Shaila Rani Rawat, Kuldeep Rawat who had stood second in last assembly elections from here as an independent and Col (Retd) Ajay Kothiyal, a former AAP leader and someone who has played a significant role in redevelopment works in Kedarnath Valley after the 2013 disaster.

Asha Nautiyal is a two time BJP MLA who is easily accessible not only to the party workers but also to the people. After having won elections in 2002 and 2007, she narrowly lost to Shaila Rani Rawat in 2012 who was in Congress then. In 2017, she was denied ticket by BJP and chose to turn rebel, standing runners up to Manoj Rawat of Congress and securing more votes than Shaila Rani Rawat who contested as BJP candidate then. She later returned to the BJP and has been handling party responsibility as the State Chief of the BJP Mahila Morcha. She is considered to be a popular and experienced face while all others contenders were relatively inexperienced in electoral battle.

BJP sources claim that this seat is of strategic importance for the party also because it is a symbol of Sanatan culture as well as due to the fact that BJP Government has done lot of restoration and reconstruction here. So, development is a major plank for the party in this constituency.

For the Congress, winning this seat can boost the morale of the party and retain the momentum which it managed to gather in the wake of the by-polls in Manglaur and Badrinath despite a humiliating defeat in the Parliamentary elections in the state.  It may be recalled that Manglaur seat was held by the BSP candidate Sarwat Karim Ansari who had passed away and then the seat was wrested from the BSP by former MLA and Congress leader Qazi Nizamuddin though only by a slight margin of few hundred votes against Kartar Singh Bhadana of BJP. Another win for the Congress is certain to boost morale of the Congress in Uttarakahnd which is currently not very high besides the fact that the party here is wrought with huge factionalism. By winning the seat, the Congress will want to project that the popularity of BJP is waning in the state.