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Kejriwal’s Gamble

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A ‘principled’ Arvind Kejriwal would have resigned as Chief Minister of Delhi the day he was denied bail and sent behind bars. But that would have meant handing over the reins of power to another for an indetermined period. With the kind of ambitious politicians he has as colleagues in the senior ranks of the party, there would have been no gainsaying how long he would have been the unchallenged leader. So, he played it safe and stuck to his post, regardless of how adversely it would impact governance.

He is now being the principled leader – only after release on bail, when he can be in better control of the party and maintain ‘discipline’ in the manner used against party MP Swati Maliwal. He has promised to resign as Chief Minister in a couple of days, seek elections in Delhi synchronous with Maharashtra and contest these as a referendum on whether he is an honest leader or not. According to him, a victory would exonerate him from the charges he faces, as a verdict from the courts may even take a couple of decades to come. That he would consider a clean chit from a ‘jury of his peers’ to become the Chief Minister of Delhi, once again. This is even if he wins for reasons other than his innocence.

He will not dissolve the Delhi Assembly because he knows that the elections may be delayed for one reason or the other by the Union Government. Also, because that would deprive his party’s government and legislators of the advantages of being in power till such time the elections do take place. It is a well thought out strategy. However, it does depend on whether the voters are not disillusioned with him after all the crookery he has been charged with.

He plans to announce the next CM in a couple of days. The speculation is that he may give his wife the job, but there are other contenders too. While Manish Sisodia has been ruled out for the same reasons as Kejriwal, there are Sanjay Singh, Atishi, Saurabh Bhardwaj, etc., who may be rewarded for their loyalty. With the election process underway in Haryana, the interaction with the general public will reveal whether Kejriwal is still the party’s main vote-getter. If there is a substantial slide, the party will then have to think of alternatives if it is to win the next elections in Delhi.