After the lift the Opposition got in the General Elections, it has been unable to get its act together. This is primarily because of defeats in assembly elections, as well as clash of interests between the national party, Congress, and the regional parties. It is only where the Congress has mostly given up at the state-level that the alliance is working, such as in Uttar Pradesh. It is obvious to all that the Samajwadi Party will stake claim to the Chief Minister’s post if a majority is achieved. This is because it is the transfer of SP votes that revived the Congress fortunes in UP. The fact that nobody is too uncomfortable, at least overtly, with Rahul Gandhi being Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha indicates a willingness to accept him as the national level leader.
The same formula is being used in Bihar in anticipation of the assembly elections. Despite the fact that the Congress launched a yatra under Kanhaiya Kumar in the state to test the waters, it is a given that RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav will be the chief ministerial face. Between the SP and the RJD, there will be a strong casteist clamp on the Congress in any future exercise of power. It is not without reason that Rahul Gandhi is projecting himself as a benefactor of the backward castes in his politics. Will it be enough?
It is not as if the BJP is free of the regional brakes on its exercise of power. This is particularly so in Bihar, where Nitish Kumar will need to deliver the section of votes that are outside the ambit of the dominant backward castes. The future shape of politics will be determined considerably by the results in that state.
The Congress also faces further challenges to its strength in the southern states. While the BJP continues to make inroads in Tamil Nadu, particularly at the grassroots level, the local parties have captured much of the space the Congress once enjoyed. With very few states to call its own, the bid for power at the national level promises to be limited to not much beyond the present ninety-nine seats. It will take large-scale disillusionment with saffron politics for the electorate to give the INDI Alliance a chance to form government. As such, without power in the states and a faint hope at the Centre, where does the future of Congress lie?
