Now that Nitish Kumar is set to become Chief Minister of Bihar for the tenth time, the NDA will look forward to further political resurgence in other parts of the country. Lessons will have been learned from the unprecedented victory, particularly regarding the need to keep even the small alliance parties close and working on satisfying their ambitions. This was a realisation that emerged from the relative setback for the main partner, the BJP, in the Lok Sabha election, and corrective measures were taken accordingly. The same will apply in the even tougher contests coming up in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.
Election victories don’t happen by themselves, no matter how confident a party may be about its captive votebank. This proved to be RJD’s major shortcoming and may well lead to Samajwadi Party’s downfall in upcoming Assembly and Lok Sabha contests. Once again, smaller entities can play a significant role. Consider, for instance, the AIMIM’s role in Bihar, which did well in Muslim dominated constituencies, earlier considered strongholds of the RJD. This is an indication that Muslims are realising how they are being taken for a ride by the ‘secular’ parties, which rise to power on their votes, but do not give sufficient number of ministries to members of the community. Now, AIMIM intends to contest on its own in West Bengal, where incumbent Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is heavily dependent on Muslim support.
The Congress has suffered greatly because of its inability to chart an intelligent path regarding where to compromise and where to play the game alone. Experts have pointed out that there are areas in Bihar that Congress has not put up its own candidates for more than a decade, leading to great demoralisation among its cadre. No wonder its ‘conversion rate’ of contested seats to victory was so low. If it does not want a repeat of the same in other states, it must stand on its own rather than take handouts from INDIA allies, whose loyalty is highly suspect. It must consider whether it wishes to be a player in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, or does it wish to help Mamata Banerjee and MK Stalin retain power. As in the case of Bihar, the Congress is under threat of total obliteration in these states, at the present, if it does not put its interests first. Mere ideological grandstanding cannot overcome grassroots reality!
