POTUS Donald Trump has upped his tariff battle against India despite his ‘friendship’ with PM Narendra Modi. It is probably because India is holding out on certain commodities, mostly to do with the agriculture sector, but one cannot be sure. It might just be an ego thing because India refused to support his claim of having brought about an end to the conflict with Pakistan. If even after the next round of negotiations there is no mutually acceptable understanding, there is no doubt that it will come as a blow to the Indian economy, as the trade with US presently is in India’s favour.
It is not the first time, of course, that such blackmail has been used against India by the US. Sanctions were imposed in Indira Gandhi’s time, which pushed ‘non-aligned’ India into the Soviet Union’s camp. The introduction of the word Socialism in the Preamble of the Constitution was undoubtedly a result of this closeness. The adoption, even further, of government control of the economy – the licence-permit raj – was also a consequence. Although India successfully passed through this stage, its economy was negatively affected. Similar attempts were made to rein in India during Atal Behari Vajpayee’s prime ministership.
Comparatively speaking, India is better positioned to face up to such blackmail in the present, but the price will still have to be paid in terms of denial of high-technology transfer, and products that no other country can provide. Experts have pointed out that India is not yet in a position to develop substitutes such as engines for the Tejas fighter. It must be noted, however, that the real breakthroughs come in times of challenge. In the defence sector, for instance, India’s success in developing missiles can prove a game-changer in terms of tactics and overall strategy.
India’s problem is also within, as the current crop of opposition leaders is more focused on bringing down Narendra Modi rather than unitedly facing up to the national challenge. If there is an agreement with the US in the future, he will be accused of giving in to Trump; if there isn’t, they will claim he lost the game. Also disappointing is to see how little clout the Indian Diaspora, which is so much celebrated here, has in US politics. At the same time, if India manages to come out stronger after this crisis, it will win the respect even further of third world countries that have no option but to succumb to Donald Trump’s demands. How things shape up still remains to be seen.
