The five day suspension of hostilities declared by US President Donald Trump is an opportunity Iran must take. It has more than shown its ability to fight back and won the respect of its adversaries. However, despite all the cheap drones and leveraging of proximity to other West Asian countries it can strike, if the war continues, it will suffer irreversible setbacks.
Trump has claimed that there are talks underway, while Iran has denied that there has been direct contact. This implies that there are intermediaries involved. According to some reports, this role is being played by Pakistan. Hopefully, something will come of it, as peace is necessary for the world economy to get back on track. Some sections in India are criticising the ‘failure’ of India in playing the broker’s role, but that is just a matter of opinion. Dealing with Trump requires kowtowing before him, which is not possible for India. If, however, Pakistan succeeds, it deserves all the credit.
If the present opportunity is squandered by Iran, American pride will force it to up the ante. There has been talk of boots on the ground and a contingent of marines has already been dispatched to the war zone. Some analysts believe that the sea-facing plains of Iran can be taken over at not much cost. It is even possible that the people of that area may not resist the occupation. This would deny Iran access to its oil fields as well as the Strait of Hormuz. Any further resistance may lead to use by the US of more conventional and cheaper weapons that cause greater civilian casualties.
While America’s allies around the world, except Israel, have refused to take part in the war, Trump’s voters at home do not seem too bothered by what’s happening. The impact on the economy has not been nearly as bad as it has on those of other countries. If Trump does not face a setback in the mid-term elections, he will feel emboldened to continue with an even more aggressive approach. It is believed that he was manipulated into launching Epic Fury by Israeli PM Netanyahu. That influence may increase further if repercussions are not felt at home.
Whatever happens, India’s diversification policy regarding oil and gas purchase has proven to be right. It will surely go further down the road, while also boosting renewable energy sources at home. It can only be hoped, however, that peace returns in West Asia, as the loss of lives has already been too much.
