Exit polls of late have lost much of their credibility, after a series of spectacular failures. However, this has not deterred the pollsters from coming up with their readings of people’s preferences after each election. Fact is, if done scientifically on the basis of a proper database, these can be quite accurate in their predictions. The continued effort by the pollsters indicates that efforts are being made in this direction. Now that the ‘exit polls’ have come out on the Delhi Assembly elections, it will be interesting to see how well the corrections have been made.
In the case of Delhi, the fact that almost all predictions are favouring the BJP indicates that a general trend has been captured. It is a certainty that the ruling AAP cannot expect the kind of mandate it received in the last two elections, going by the numerous controversies it has faced. It is natural for the pendulum to swing the other way, just as it did against the BJP in the national elections. It remains to be seen how deep the anti-incumbency is and whether it will give BJP, if nothing else, a simple majority.
In fact, it is the unquestioned power enjoyed by AAP in the Assembly that has worked against it. A strong opposition always ensures that the government remains on its toes and the kind of arrogance displayed by Arvind Kejriwal and his cohorts over two terms does not come into play.
There is no doubt that there is a hardcore constituency that still backs AAP. This is because it did not just enjoy the freebies but also exercised influence in other ways. However, it would seem that large sections are unwilling now to give up power to such brokers even in exchange for the promised freebies. And, as the debate during the election campaign showed, many of the promises made by Kejriwal on important issues, such as drinking water supply, quality education and health care, proper roads, drainage, etc., were not delivered to the extent required. This neglect has been highlighted by the ‘Sheeshmahal’ metaphor that pollsters claim has had a great impact on public opinion.
Very possibly, the AAP leadership and cadre experienced this negative feedback during the campaign, which is why a parallel narrative was generated about deficient voter lists, EVM tampering, a partisan ECI, intimidation of voters by police, etc. This will become the theme in the coming days if AAP does end up losing the election.
