“If one does not know what one’s own strategy is in war, there is no way the enemy can anticipate what one is going to do.” This seems to be the philosophy of the new Chanakya of world affairs, US President Donald Trump.
For the good of the world, however, some progress has been made in the ongoing stand-off between the US and Iran, with the acceptance by both sides of a fourteen day ceasefire and the beginning of negotiations. It is a very positive sign that Iran is willing to talk, as the alternative could genuinely have been a prolonged conflict and near absolute devastation.
It may be noted that, under the threat of having its civilian infrastructure and power installations destroyed, the Iranian people chose to gather at these sites in large numbers, thereby adopting a Gandhian model of non-violent resistance. Any attack on them would have, under any reading of international conventions, been considered a war crime. In fact, it would not be an exaggeration to say that the US, Israel and Iran have already violated these conventions in the conflict.
It must be acknowledged that the ceasefire is only the beginning to what will prove to be very complicated negotiations. The demands that have been put forward by both sides are mostly irreconcilable. Ground will have to be conceded by each, which going by the nature of the respective leaderships seems near impossible. Third parties will have to put in a lot of effort to develop common ground. Iran has proposed a ten-point ceasefire proposal, while the US has its own fifteen point plan. The immediate demand is the full and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s demands are set in the decades of differences it has had regarding its nuclear programme. As such it wants the lifting of sanctions, extended control over the Strait, nuclear enrichment rights, US military withdrawal from the region, a non-aggression pact, end of regional attacks, financial compensation for the damage caused, a binding UN resolution to formalise whatever agreement is reached, and termination of international resolutions against it at the UNSC and IAEA.
The US essentially wants the full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear sites and an end to its proxy activities. So, how much can be agreed upon in the present circumstances? Pakistan and others have succeeded in bringing the two parties on the negotiating table. It remains to be seen whether they have the diplomatic skills to take the matter further. For the time being, however, the world can heave a sigh of enormous relief.
