Immediately after taking over as US President, Donald Trump signed executive orders to further his populist agenda. There are others to come. The world is rightly concerned about the impact these initiatives will have on specific regions and countries. The US withdrawing from the Paris Climate Change Agreement and the World Health Organisation has long term implications. His belligerence regarding the Panama Canal and Greenland, as well as towards neighbours Mexico and Canada, will to a large extent legitimise the expansionist designs of other countries, such as China’s designs against Taiwan.
India will also have its concerns although it was not too much a beneficiary during the Biden tenure. Trump’s plan to drill oil is bound to bring down prices and, considering the fact that India still has considerable dependence on the fuel, it will reduce the import bill. However, like many other countries, India is not likely to step back from its goal to promote eco-friendly energy generation. Hopefully, the world will recognise that India has been responsible in its efforts to reduce carbon emissions, which has not been adequately appreciated in the past. Following Trump’s actions, India’s standing among the global community should rise further.
Much has been spoken about Trump’s transactional approach to situations and foreign relations. He believes he has many cards in his hand but how well he plays them remains to be seen. The bullying attitude can work only to a certain extent. He has raised hopes about ending the Ukraine-Russia war. Putin will certainly be open to a negotiated position where the line is drawn in Ukrainian territory. Without US support, Ukraine will find it hard to continue its resistance. So, the killing may be brought to a halt. This will give a boost to the world economy, which has endured major logistical and trade setbacks. Here, too, India will be a direct beneficiary.
A matter of serious concern for India is that Trump’s extreme MAGA supporters believe people of Indian origin to be exploiters who have taken Americans’ jobs. Protecting PIOs’ interests will require delicate diplomacy and Trump will have to be placated in some way. High tariffs on Indian goods will have to be countered with low cost and high-volume manufacturing, as also diversifying to other markets, particularly the emerging African nations. The Bangladesh situation may ease somewhat, while greater US support against Islamic extremism can be expected. In the long run, however, by disengaging from the rest of the world, the US may lose some of its clout. Will that be a good thing or bad?
