It is being described as a ‘fragile’ ceasefire. After Pakistan carried out cross-border firing, following the announcement by its Prime Minister of a ceasefire ‘brokered by US President Trump’, India has no reason for complacency. Pakistan’s actions are indicative of the fact that its military establishment and the political leadership are often not on the same page. Possibly, the continued hostilities are the Army’s way of communicating to PM Shahbaz Sharif that it will do what it likes.
In the larger context, it may be noted that there have been reportedly over 2000 violations between Israel and Lebanon since they agreed to a ceasefire. It is just a situation where, instead of peace, there is a suspension of hostilities. India and Pakistan may have entered that stage, though only time will tell what direction matters will take. The disappointment being expressed by hardliners at India’s ‘failure’ to carry through with the ‘annihilation’ of the terrorist network in Pakistan or, even better, liberate POK, is understandable, but in the present information gap, it is best left to the government on what choices are to be made.
Talks are supposed to be held between the two countries on Monday on how the issue is to be taken forward. The Indian response will depend upon the reality of how well the armed forces have carried out Operation Sindoor. The primary objective has certainly been achieved, with not just a number of hardened terrorists being eliminated, but their hideouts destroyed. With Pakistan upping the stakes, India hit important airbases and other strategic infrastructure. Unfortunately, Pakistan was able to cause civilian casualties in the border areas of Poonch and other parts of J&K.
Importantly, India’s strategic planners now have a good idea of Pakistan’s defence capability. At first glance, this has been found to be quite shallow and incapable of functioning effectively in a longer conflict. This makes it likely that the nuclear option will be activated sooner than later, which is what the global community negotiating with both nations wishes very much to prevent. There is no need for India to invite that risk after having achieved its stated goals.
In the longer term, the real leverage will be provided by the cancellation, or renegotiation, of the Indus Water Treaty. Pakistan must realise that India cannot be taken for granted. There will be a finality in India’s actions just as in the case of Article 370’s abrogation. Continuing down the path of confrontation and sponsorship of terrorism will lead to further tightening of the screws, leading to even an existential crisis for Pakistan.
