By Arun Pratap Singh
Garhwal Post Bureau
DEHRADUN, 27 Jun: On the directions of the party High Command, Uttarakhand BJP has already begun planning to launch intensive campaigns and exercise towards improving performance in the assembly constituencies where traditionally, the party has not fared well in previous elections. Though the next Uttarakhand Assembly elections are still around 8 months away, the BJP has already begun an intensive organisational exercise to crack those Assembly constituencies that have consistently eluded it despite the party’s prolonged dominance in the State.
As one of the major steps, the party has deployed senior party leader from the BJP‘s State Core Committee to these politically challenging constituencies. This is also an indication of the fact that the party has already shifted into election mode much earlier than usual, with a clear emphasis on booth-level mobilisation and constituency-specific planning.
Traditionally, Piran Kaliyar, Manglaur, Chakrata and Dharchula Assembly constituencies have never been won by the BJP ever since the formation of the State. Of these, Manglaur and Piran Kaliyar are considered to be Muslim dominated seats and therefore the party has found it hard to crack them so far. At the same time, Chakrata has been held by Congress and represented by senior Congress leader Pritam Singh ever since the first Assembly elections held in Uttarakhand in 2002. Of course, at least on two occasions, the fight has been close one with BJP’s Madhu Tomar Chauhan who is wife of Vikasnagar MLA Munna Singh Chauhan giving a tough fight to Pritam Singh in the tribal constituency. Dharchula has also proven to be difficult for the party. In the 2002 and 2007 Assembly elections, the seat was won by an independent candidate Gagan Singh Rajwar but since 2012, the constituency is represented by Harish Dhami of Congress with BJP struggling to put up good performance there.
However, the party realises that the anti incumbency not only works against the Government but also against the local MLAs in many constituencies. BJP has initiated an elaborate micro–management strategy in Chakrata, Piran Kaliyar, Manglaur and Dharchula, the four Assembly segments where the party has never managed to register a victory since the formation of Uttarakhand in 2000. Besides these seats, the BJP has managed to win Bhagwanpur constituency only once in 2002 Assembly elections after which the constituency has been held by Surendra Rakesh and then his wife. While Surendra Rakesh represented BSP as this constituency has been reserved for SC, his wife represents Congress. The only time, the seat was won by the BJP was in 2002 when Chandrashekhar Bhattewale had won the elections.
In addition to these seats, there have been some other seats where the party’s performance has not been consistent, They include Yamunotri, Badrinath and Haldwani and Khatima. Sources in the party claim that the party has also intensified preparations in constituencies such as Yamunotri and Bhagwanpur, where electoral success has remained elusive or inconsistent, indicating that the party is looking beyond its traditional strongholds to expand its political footprint.
It may be recalled that generally, the BJP has proven to be stronger than the Congress in the history of Uttarakhand as a separate state. In Uttarakhand’s 26-year political journey, the BJP has governed the State for nearly 16 years, while the Congress has remained in power for around a decade. Despite this sustained political dominance, the party has repeatedly failed to convert its statewide popularity into victories in a few geographically and socially and demographically distinct constituencies. Party strategists now appear determined to erase these remaining electoral blind spots before seeking a third consecutive term in office.
Recognising that conventional campaigning alone may not be sufficient, the BJP has entrusted one senior Core Committee member with the responsibility of overseeing each of these difficult constituencies until the elections. These leaders have been tasked with monitoring every aspect of organisational functioning, coordinating local workers, assessing political developments and ensuring that election preparations remain on track throughout the campaign period.
The party’s strategy revolves around an extensive micro–management model that integrates booth committees, mandal units, ‘Mann Ki Baat’ coordinators, frontal organisations, party cells and grassroots workers into a unified campaign structure. The objective is to establish direct contact with every voter through booth-level workers while simultaneously strengthening organisational cohesion in constituencies where local factors have historically outweighed broader political trends.
The BJP leadership is also conducting internal surveys and constituency-wise assessments to identify candidates with the highest winning potential in these constituencies. Besides evaluating caste equations, local leadership dynamics and anti-incumbency factors, the organisation is reportedly examining social and demographic changes that may influence electoral outcomes. Candidate selection is expected to be guided more by winnability than by seniority, reflecting the party’s increasingly data-driven electoral approach.
Another important aspect of the BJP‘s strategy is its close monitoring of possible third-force candidates. Political managers believe that triangular contests could alter the electoral arithmetic in several constituencies, particularly where victories have traditionally been decided by narrow margins. If anti-BJP votes are divided between the Congress and regional or independent candidates, the ruling party could find opportunities that were previously unavailable.
Political observers note that the early activation of the organisation reflects the BJP‘s determination not merely to retain power but also to improve its strike rate across all regions of the State. Winning these difficult constituencies would strengthen the party’s narrative of comprehensive political expansion and demonstrate its ability to penetrate social groups and regions that have historically remained outside its electoral influence.
Among the four most challenging seats, Chakrata in Dehradun district has remained a Congress fortress since the State’s inception. From 2002 to 2022, veteran Congress leader Pritam Singh has retained the seat in all five Assembly elections, making it one of the BJP‘s most formidable electoral challenges.
Piran Kaliyar in Haridwar district, created after the delimitation exercise, has also remained beyond the BJP‘s reach. Congress leader Furqan Ahmad has won the constituency consecutively in the 2012, 2017 and 2022 Assembly elections, consolidating a strong political base in the constituency.
Manglaur has witnessed a more complex electoral history but has proved equally difficult for the BJP. The constituency remained with the Bahujan Samaj Party in the 2002, 2007 and 2012 Assembly elections before shifting to the Congress in 2017. The BSP regained the seat in 2022, but following the 2024 by-election, the Congress once again secured the constituency. The constantly changing political landscape in Manglaur makes candidate selection and local alliances particularly crucial.
Dharchula in Pithoragarh district has also consistently resisted the BJP‘s electoral advances. Independent candidate Gagan Singh Rajwar won the seat in both 2002 and 2007, while Congress leader Harish Dhami has represented the constituency since 2012. Even the 2014 by-election failed to produce a breakthrough for the BJP, underlining the constituency‘s distinct political character.
From a broader political perspective, the BJP‘s decision to begin constituency-specific planning well before the formal election season highlights the growing importance of organisational strength over traditional election-time mobilisation. The party appears keen to ensure that governance achievements at the State level are effectively translated into votes at the constituency level through sustained grassroots engagement. At the same time, the exercise also reflects the BJP‘s acknowledgement that statewide popularity alone cannot guarantee victory in every Assembly segment and that local leadership, social equations, candidate credibility and continuous voter outreach remain decisive factors in closely contested elections.
The Congress, on the other hand, will seek to defend these constituencies as symbols of its enduring grassroots presence in Uttarakhand. For the principal Opposition party, retaining these long-held bastions will be equally important in countering the BJP‘s expansion strategy and preserving pockets of organisational strength ahead of the Assembly elections. Consequently, these traditionally difficult constituencies are expected to witness some of the most closely watched and strategically significant contests in the State in the forthcoming elections, with both national parties likely to invest considerable organisational and political capital in shaping the electoral outcome.
