By Anshi Rajkhova
Dehradun, 30 Sep: A conference on ‘Impact of Rising Temperatures on Uttarakhand’s Ecosystem and Economy’ was recently held at Uttaranchal Press Club at which many factors leading to landslides and the impact of climate change on ecology of the state were discussed. All the participants felt that Climate Change is hitting the world’s most densely populated region with acute intensity and frequency. Extreme heatwaves in India, along with changing patterns of the southwest monsoon, are increasing the vulnerability of its population and governance structures. Governments at central, state and local levels are increasingly recognising the significance of preparedness, resilience and planning for the impacts of climate change. According to a study, climate change in Uttarakhand will increasingly force people to abandon farming at high altitudes and move to the plains over the next 30 years.
They also observed that Uttarakhand’s battle with climate change has become fiercer, with the state witnessing abnormality during every season. The year 2024 began with a warmer than average and snowless winter season, followed by record breaking heat during the summer season. So far, Monsoon rains have been on the surplus side, but uneven spatial distribution of rains have been posing challenges for the state’s ecosystem. Extreme weather events have become a new normal for the state during the season, impacting the state economy.
Uttarakhand has witnessed another year of variable Monsoon rains this season. While each incident could not be classified into a natural disaster like a cloudburst, these extreme weather events have been sending strong indications of climate change.
So far, Uttarakhand has recorded 1267.9 mm of rainfall against the normal of 1156.6, which is an excess of 10 percent over the normal range of rainfall during the monsoon. Dr Ashwini Ranade, a climate scientist from the Centre for Cryosphere and Climate Change Studies, noted that “even a slight rise in temperatures in the Himalayan region can significantly destabilise the ecosystem”, further emphasising the urgent need for climate mitigation efforts. Ranade noted that this concern stems from the fact that a one-degree temperature increase globally results in accelerated glacial melt in the Himalayas. Currently, glaciers are receding by 10-20 metres annually, and this trend could push the region toward a future where rain-fed systems dominate, exacerbating the drought-like conditions.
However, like past many years, maximum contribution continued to be in the form of extreme weather events. The uneven distribution of rainfall continues to haunt the state. According to latest Monsoon rain figures, Bageshwar district has recorded over three times of its average rainfall, making it rainfall excess to the tune of 223 percent, while Chamoli has had excess rainfall to the extent of 75 percent. On the other hand, Pauri Garhwal district has been battling with a large rainfall deficiency of 38 percent.
The participants also observed that increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events can be directly linked with the spike in the average temperatures influenced by the impacts of climate change. Reportedly, the state has seen over 1500 incidents of landslides this year, triggered by very heavy to extremely heavy rains. According to geologists, geomorphological conditions of high mountain areas are very sensitive to heavy spells of rain. Rudraprayag district in Uttarakhand, which has highest landslide density in India, also has the highest exposure to total population, working population, literacy and number of houses.
Between 1988 and 2023, Uttarakhand recorded 12,319 landslides, according to the data from the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). The frequency has accelerated over the past few years.
Landslides can be initiated in slopes already on the verge of movement by rainfall, snowmelt, changes in water level, stream erosion, and changes in groundwater levels, earthquakes, volcanic activity, disturbance by human activities, or any combination of these factors (USGS). Landslides are triggered usually when the intensity of rainfall increases to 200mm in 24 hours.
Impact on Agriculture
Uttarakhand’s agricultural sector has been severely impacted by erratic rainfall and landslides. Dr Rajendra Singh Negi, a professor at HNB Garhwal University, pointed out, “Changing rainfall patterns and frequent landslides are wreaking havoc on hill agriculture, causing soil erosion and significantly reducing soil health.” He further explained that farmers are struggling to adapt to this shifting climate, with monsoon rains arriving either too early or too late, and the intensity of downpour washing away the topsoil essential for cultivation.
The socioeconomic impact of these changes has been dire. Rural communities, which depend heavily on subsistence farming, are facing increasing food insecurity as their crops fail. Meanwhile, the increased frequency of natural disasters has displaced many families, forcing them to abandon their homes and livelihoods in search of safer ground.
Need for Monitoring, Early Warning and Alert System
It is crucial to establish a robust monitoring, early warning, and alert system for potential disaster risks in the region, ensuring that people in vulnerable areas are promptly informed through reliable, scientifically validated forecasting models provided by the responsible nodal agencies and authorities.
