There is no doubt that the assembly elections in Jharkhand and Maharashtra are very crucial for both of India’s major political combines. A victory for the BJP led NDA will mean greater stability for the Modi Government at the Centre. Having suffered a setback in the Lok Sabha elections by losing seats in its stronghold states, the BJP needs to regain its momentum. On the other hand, by consolidating its gains in Maharashtra, the INDI Alliance can become an even bigger thorn in the NDA’s side.
Even though the Congress has been quite euphoric about its gains, there is a question whether it has managed to identify and consolidate on the factors that somewhat resurrected its fortunes. The party’s leadership has been focusing on what believes gave it the advantage – the caste census, the redistribution of wealth, and protecting the constitution. The implication is that there are enough people who believe in the role of caste identity in politics requiring increased reservations as a constitutional right. The idea of an aspirational India that grows on the basis of individual effort is rejected by such thinking. Considering the fact that Maharashtra is home to India’s most famous enterprises and consequently wealthier, giving a thumbs up to unimplementable and regressive economic policies would be a major self-goal. However, the continued emphasis on competitive caste politics by analysts does create concern about how much divisiveness has grown in the state.
Another aspect of Maharashtra politics is a somewhat exaggerated battle of egos. Uddhav Thackeray’s breakaway from the NDA was primarily the unwillingness to give the BJP its share of the state’s leadership. If there is a victory for the MVA, of which his party is a part, does he believe he will be made Chief Minister? Will the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP give a five-year stint to what essentially is a ‘saffron’ party? Are the people not aware of the potential instability this would result in with its impact on the economy? At least in the case of the Maha Yuti coming to power, there would be the guiding hand of Modi at the Centre. In the end, it may just come to how much clout individual candidates have in their constituencies. From that point of view, the present ruling combine may have a slight advantage. Considering all the factors, the chances of a fractured mandate are also high. Either way, the Congress may not receive the desired mandate for its adopted policies of the extreme left being promoted so vigorously by star campaigner Rahul Gandhi, which would be a relief.
