After claiming its missiles successfully hit military targets in Israel on Tuesday, Iran can now project this as an appropriate and effective response to the assassinations of the Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah, and its own General Abbas Nilforushan. Having satisfied public opinion, it can now refrain from other overt responses and continue with its usual policy of ‘drowning’ Israel in a hostile neighbourhood. This could prevent an escalation of the ongoing conflict in the region.
It depends, however, on how Israel is going to respond. Going by recent events, Israel does not lack the means to strike deadly blows in unconventional and innovative ways. It has already warned it may do so, but it depends on its larger strategic priorities. Having decimated Hamas in Gaza, it is now focused on doing the same to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran’s number may come later in a different way.
This is the best hope the international community has of the bloodshed not escalating into a larger conflict which will require governments around the world to take sides in one or the other way. The United States has already been drawn in, militarily, by assisting Israel in shooting down Iran’s ballistic missiles. While it has been appealing for restraint and a ceasefire, it may be forced to provide further support if Israel goes down the belligerent path.
The impact of the escalation is already being felt by nations around the world with possible disruption of the Red Sea trade route, airlines having to fly around the region, large scale movement of populations, rise in prices, etc. Radical groups like the Houthis will ramp up their attacks on ships to extend support to the cause. The US has already had to increase protection of its Jewish establishments, and other countries will be doing the same.
India has ‘expressed concern’ and appealed for ‘restraint by all concerned’. It has functional relations with all the countries involved and is obviously using diplomatic channels to calm the situation. Unfortunately, despite the popular narrative, it lacks the clout to apply serious pressure. It is only goodwill that is on offer and in existential struggles such as the ongoing one, that matters little. Hopefully, India’s intelligence and security forces will be studying deeply the contours of the conflict, learning important lessons about new age wars, the technology they involve, as well as the out-of-the box approach the Israelis have once again exhibited. Also, what may be India’s advantages in this context.
