Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin and Andhra Pradesh CM Chandrababu Naidu have flagged the drop in the fertility rate of their states’ populations to lower than replacement rate. Their concerns are for different reasons. Stalin is bothered that a smaller population would reduce the state’s heft in the national context, particularly with delimitation approaching. Naidu is worried about older people not having the necessary family and social support if there is drastic reduction in the number of young people. He wishes to introduce disincentives for those seeking to have less than two children. This is the opposite of the incentives that have existed thus far for people to have fewer children.
Of course, the impact of the decline in the youth demographic is expected some decades down the line, as presently the nation is supposedly benefiting from the ‘dividend’ of having a youthful population. But when the problem does come, it will prove a challenge, as is presently the case in some countries. Japan, for instance, witnessed forty thousand people dying alone, last year. A child was born in a village there after twenty years! The same is the trajectory in other developed countries, which are being basically held up by immigrants. China is already suffering the negative consequences of its enforced one child policy.
It is, therefore, understandable that CMs of states that have seen the long-desired decline in population are worried about its impact on the economy, social and family life, culture and traditions, etc. In Uttarakhand, too, the migration from the hills is seriously affecting the traditional lifestyle and customs. This has led to some level of paranoia regarding ‘outsiders’ coming in to work or do business.
Overall, there has also been the affect of decades’ long preference for the male child, which led to a drop in the percentage of women in the total population. This is only now being corrected to some extent through social and legal interventions. A lot of married couples now also prefer not to have any children, focusing instead on their careers. Not having a family, village or community to provide support in bringing up children is another reason. It also costs a lot, and for the middle class, the necessary welfare measures are lacking. And, although, the CMs’ concerns may also have political reasons, one should not brush these away as a joke. Thinkers must begin to pay attention to this issue in the Indian context and offer solutions.
