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India in the Emerging Multipolar World Order

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By Devender Singh Aswal

The international order of the twenty-first century is no longer that of the immediate post-Cold War era.  Nations are regrouping, and realigning, influenced by geopolitical convulsions, and domestic compulsions. Technological innovation is redefining sovereignty.  Economic interdependence is under strain because of new geopolitics. The choices made by India, the largest democracy of the world, have implications for international peace and security, international trade, economic cooperation, technological governance, climate action, and the developmental priorities of the Global South. India’s participation in diverse international groupings bears the definitive stamp of this approach. India engages with the G20, BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and the QUAD while simultaneously maintaining strategic and economic partnerships with countries having different geopolitical priorities.

There can be no gainsaying that the institutions of global governance do not reflect today’s distribution of political and economic power. There is a mounting demand to reform the UN Security Council, and to secure greater representation of the Global South in international financial and trade institutions. Given India’s growth trajectory and standing in geo politics, India’s must demand institutional reform, not simply as a demand for greater national representation but as part of the larger effort to ensure that the voices of Asia, Africa, Latin America and the wider Global South receive appropriate representation in institutions whose decisions affect international peace, finance, trade and security.

India has advocated common but differentiated responsibilities at the summits on Climate Change and Sustainable Development. Climate justice requires, more than ambitious declarations, accessible climate finance, technology-transfer, resilient infrastructure, and protection for communities most vulnerable to environmental change. India firmly believes that the development that destroys our ecological foundations cannot endure. Environmental policies that disregard employment, poverty and energy access, and above all sustainable development, cannot command lasting public confidence. India stands for and has constantly advocated integration of economic progress with environmental responsibility and social justice.

India’s aspiration is, and legitimately so, to occupy one of the key poles of the emerging geopolitical landscape by combining capabilities, relationships and positioning. India’s foreign policy is no longer a choice between East and West. India continues to engage with East, West, North and South simultaneously, necessitated by the new geopolitics, displaying strategic autonomy and flexibility.  A successful diplomacy must be flexible enough to adjust to changing circumstances. According to Henry Kissinger, “Nuances, flexibility and sometimes ambiguity are the tools of diplomacy.”

Technology has emerged as one of the most important instruments of geopolitical power. Artificial intelligence, semiconductor manufacturing, quantum computing, telecommunications, satellite systems, digital platforms, and cross-border data flows, increasingly influence the economic, strategic, and military capabilities of nations. The countries that control critical technologies, digital infrastructure, and data will obviously wield far greater influence over the international order of the future.

India has made a special niche globally for building an emulative Digital Public Infrastructure. Digital identity, payment systems, and technology-enabled public services have expanded on an unprecedented scale, and India’s digital public infrastructure has attracted international interest. Modern societies depend upon interconnected digital networks for banking, energy, transportation, healthcare, communications, and public administration. A cyberattack upon critical infrastructure can cause widespread disruption without conventional military force. Therefore, Cyber deterrence requires effective and continuously evolving counter measures against hostile cyber activity. Data sovereignty is another important component of digital geopolitics. Data is an economic resource, but it is also connected with individual identity and privacy. The challenge is to reconcile innovation with privacy, national security and individual rights.  Artificial Intelligence presents perhaps the most profound challenge of all.

Trade, Economics and Strategic Connectivity are important components of national security. Recent global disruptions have exposed vulnerabilities in supply chains and the risks of excessive dependence on limited sources for energy, medicines, semiconductors, critical minerals and defence equipment. Economic diplomacy has therefore moved from being a supporting component of foreign policy to becoming a central instrument of national strategy. Perhaps energy security is the most formidable challenge that India faces currently given the huge national requirement and our dependence on imports. These are testing times for our diplomacy too.

India’s stated aspiration to occupy a key position in the emerging geopolitical landscape will require modern infrastructure, energy security, skilled human resources, regulatory certainty, research capability, technological capacity and sustained international cooperation. It will also require sustained economic growth.  The US sanctions have put our exports under strain. The passing of Sanctioning of Russia and Iran Act of 2026 by US Congress has given a surgical instrument to President Trump to punish at his discretion, not only Moscow but countries that buy Russian energy including India and China. But a strong and intuitive leadership can certainly surmount these temporary headwinds by demonstrating that India is the largest sovereign democratic republic of the world and poised to emerge as the third largest economy of the world. Given India’s expanding economic strength, resilience and growth trajectory, no power on earth can stop the relentless march of India.

In order to have a greater say in global affairs, India must build an invincible and impenetrable armour of national security, secure its borders of any infiltrations and constantly develop the ability to respond decisively against emerging threats. National security is no longer limited to conventional military preparedness in view of cross-border terrorism, cyberattacks, organised transnational crime, information warfare, economic coercion, attacks on critical infrastructure, and space-based threats. The challenge is complicated by Hybrid warfare, which cannot remain the responsibility of the armed forces alone. It requires far greater synergy among security agencies, technology institutions, financial regulators and civil society. Space security is yet another related dimension.  Communications, navigation, weather forecasting, banking, disaster management, and defence systems depend heavily upon satellites. Protecting space-based assets and encouraging responsible conduct in outer space must therefore become important elements of India’s national-security policy.

Economic power is the foundation of national security and strategic autonomy. Kautilya said two millennia ago, “The treasury is the foundation of the army, and the army is the instrument of the protection of the state.” No country can maintain strategic autonomy without economic strength. Foreign policy ultimately rests upon the economic capability, thriving trade and commerce, and defence capabilities. India needs sustained economic expansion if it is to enhance its strategic capabilities and global influence. More so, India’s ambition of becoming a developed nation by 2047 requires high and sustained growth but the growth must be fair and equitable. We must avoid emergence of a K-shaped economy which deepens disparities and creates social discontent. Investment in education, health, research and development and defence is not merely an expenditure. It is investment in building national capability. Economic development, technological advancement, human capital and national security are mutually reinforcing.

India cannot become a global rule-shaper without economic strength and technological capability.  Economic growth cannot be sustained without secure borders, resilient supply chains, energy security and stable international partnerships. India’s global influence will ultimately be judged not merely by its economic size, military capacity, or participation in international fora, but by the principles it advances, the trust it creates, and the solutions it helps to develop.

(The author is ex-Additional Secretary, Lok Sabha, and Member, Supreme Court Bar Association. The article is an abridged version of the keynote address delivered by him at the National Seminar held by Amity Law School, Noida, recently. The views expressed are personal.)