The twenty-point peace offer made by US President Donald Trump to Palestinian terror group Hamas is nothing more than a demand for total surrender. Hamas realises this and, if it concedes, that will mean Israel has achieved its objectives. On the other hand, Israel has a back up plan that will basically mean the total occupation of Gaza, after having forced its population out. For Palestinians it is a choice between a rock and a hard place.
Countries that neighbour Palestine and others like Qatar and Saudi Arabia favour Trump’s plan because it will take Palestine closer to becoming a terrorist free and stable entity. The recent recognition of Palestine as a nation by influential countries like France and Britain is a symbolic but significant sign of the direction international opinion is taking regarding the ongoing conflict.
Hamas is under pressure to accept Trump’s terms, and if it does, it will seek to negotiate some of the more stringent provisions, which will take some time. Will Israel be willing to exercise restraint in the meanwhile? It may, if the remaining hostages in Hamas custody are released. Although it has, so far, ignored the rising tide of international opinion against the suffering inflicted upon the people of Gaza, there is no doubt that it is running out of long-term allies.
A third scenario is that Hamas puts on enough of a pretence to make Trump feel he is close to winning the Nobel Peace Prize. Any resistance by Israel could make him deny the crucial support provided by the US, thereby creating a rift between the two allies. However, this can only be done if there is progress on the hostage issue. It could play out both ways – either it could lead to an even more desperate Israel, or a suspension of hostilities.
Would a breakdown in negotiations lead to Israel continuing with its Gaza takeover strategy, or would it be opposed by the US? It depends on how Trump’s ego is impacted. In practical terms, Gaza under Israeli control could lead to some stability, but only in the short term. It will have to be maintained by force and the potential for future terrorist attacks and conflict will remain.
Despite all these scenarios, even the slight ray of hope is better than what’s happening at present. The entire world is eager to witness some positive developments given the seemingly intractable nature of the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine.
