Considering how exit polls have consistently got their surveys wrong in recent times, people might begin to believe that the opposite is more likely to happen. Looked at from that point of view, the NDA may end up losing the just held Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections. Superstition apart, the likelier reason for the mishits is the very close nature of the contests. Being a first-past-the- post democracy, a party that gets only one percent votes more than its adversary can win a majority of seats. This was one of the reasons why the Haryana election foxed the pollsters. The BJP won because its voters were better spread across the state than that of the Congress.
There is no doubt that opposition unity has managed to put up a credible challenge against BJP dominance. This is the reason why very disparate ideologies have stuck to a common objective and not fallen apart. There is no greater motivator than self-interest. Overall, it is a good thing for the voter to have a viable alternative. On the other hand, such a situation leads to more polarised politics without a middle ground. It is only when there are several options available that a more nuanced and balanced choice can be made, as has been the case to some extent in J&K.
Experts are pointing out that something similar is in play in Maharashtra, where there are two fronts pitted against each other, but the composition of whichever gets a majority could also play a role. Who will have a better strike rate, for instance, in the Maha Vikas Aghadi – the Congress, NCP-SP or the Shiv Sena (UBT)? How much will this impact the choice of Chief Minister, if it comes to that? The war of words on this issue has already started. Similarly, there will be tremors in the Mahayuti if Ajit Pawar’s NCP does well.
The people’s mandate, therefore, will not just be between two alliances, but also indicate a preference in direction, as every faction has a distinct ideology. The MVA is an alliance of dynasts. A vote in its favour furthers that brand of politics. On the other hand, the Mahayuti is more representative of the aspirational grassroots. As such, the mandate – unless sabotaged by personal ambitions – however narrow, will decide the state’s future at a critical juncture. So, who wins is not so important as what happens afterwards.
