After 21 hours of talks in Islamabad, the US and Iran failed to agree on a peace agreement. It is hoped that this will not result in the breakdown of the ongoing ceasefire. Attempts are being made to create grounds for the negotiations to continue as some understanding must have been arrived at between the two parties regarding each other’s positions.
Going by President Donald Trump’s immediate reaction, the US might just walk away from the mess it has created based on his claim that the ‘war has been won’. This would leave the Strait of Hormuz in the hands of Iran, to the great detriment of the Gulf countries, as also those who obtain oil from the region, such as India, China, Japan, Australia, et al. Also, even if tankers are allowed through, they face the great danger of mines whose exact locations are not known as many have drifted away from their positions with the currents of the sea.
The fact that Israel was not only excluded from the talks but also expected to cease hostilities against Hezbollah in Lebanon was a downer. This is because even the US cannot impede Israel’s long-term strategy in the region. The two nations agree on stopping Iran from achieving its nuclear ambitions. One of the few consistent policies Trump has adhered to has been on the nuclear issue.
For the present, the chief negotiator, US VP JD Vance has left on the table a ‘best and final offer’, leaving the door open for the Iranians. However, Iranians cannot give up their nuclear options in the long term perspective. They also want sanctions to be lifted, their frozen assets released, compensation for the damage caused by the conflict, and a complete ceasefire in Lebanon. This was found unacceptable by the US negotiators.
Not only will resumption of hostilities impact energy supply but also inflict long term damage on the world economy. While alternatives may be found by the buyers, the decades of work that has gone into building up the Gulf countries as havens of peace, development and progress may well go down the drain.
The best that can be hoped for is that the US ends the conflict by claiming it has achieved its objectives, at least for the time being. This may be followed up by some kind of arrangement being worked out by affected countries that allows some return to normalcy for the present.
