The BJP’s setback in the Lok Sabha elections and its failure to make inroads into opposition territory in assembly bypolls is causing worry among its supporters. There is concern that despite all the good work and right policy priorities, voters have shifted loyalties. It would seem so to the casual observer, but after a closer examination of each contest in the assembly or Lok Sabha constituencies, it will be noted that the biggest prevailing factor has been opposition unity. Parties that would have taken votes away from the main challenger against BJP have now consolidated the opposition vote. It will be seen that, by and large, the BJP vote percentage has not reduced by very much – around one or two percentage points on average, with a few spectacular exceptions.
So, while voices are being raised by panicked BJP leaders seeking a reappraisal of policies and better selection of candidates, it is also important to develop a more sophisticated approach to countering the opposition methodology. What are the contradictions, for instance, between Congress and Samajwadi Party ideologies in UP? Which of these two parties stands to benefit more from the coalition in the long run? For the time being, this coalition is in a honeymoon period, having benefited enormously at the hustings. But what is the compatibility at the ground level between their cadres? Can differences be exploited, particularly in the context of coming bypolls and, more importantly, the assembly elections in 2027?
There is absolutely no doubt that the contest will have to be led at the grassroots level by BJP’s own cadre, as demanded by the concerned leaders. And leaders are not to be top loaded by the party high commands in the states and the Centre. Since in UP, particularly, it has become mostly about caste, the new leadership must transcend that appeal with the right mix of ideology.
With the demands for a review of strategy already being raised, the BJP will have to go back to the people and examine the reasons for public disenchantment with it. It has the necessary cadre for the exercise, but more importantly the right lessons need to be learned. Also, the totality of Modi’s development policy must be communicated, for which the understanding should emerge within the party first. The Opposition has got itself a working model, the BJP must develop a counter.
