There is a street saying in UP – ‘Whether burning diesel falls on you, or you fall on it, the result will be the same.” The Yusuf Government in Bangladesh should, perhaps, understand how this applies when it comes to relations with India. For some strange reason, it has adopted a grandiose foreign policy designed to ‘counter’ India’s size and strength. It has forgotten history and seeks to cozy up to Pakistan. It is providing economic and strategic space to China without considering the fate of nations that have done so and, basically, surrendered major chunks of their sovereignty. And all this to get back at former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has been provided sanctuary in India.
Pakistan’s contribution to the Bangladeshi strategy can be nothing more than providing training in cross border terror activities. China, it has been recently reported, will upgrade airstrips along the Indian border along the Siliguri Corridor. The message being sent across is that military aircraft would be deployed there as a potential threat to India. Clearly, the message sent across by Operation Sindoor has not been understood in Dhaka. Unlike in the past, India will no longer tolerate threats just because countering them would require crossing the border. India has learned through experience that such tolerance only results in matters getting worse.
Also, just because nothing has become visible yet, it is not as if India doesn’t have a gameplan regarding Bangladesh. It is just allowing the present efforts at ‘reimagining’ democracy in that country to play out. It is already a struggle, because it has gone much beyond merely the ouster of the Hasina regime. Islamist movements that have long chaffed at the constitution’s ‘secular’ nature, have already derailed the process and are seeking their pound of flesh. Neither Mohd Yunus nor the leaders of the students’ movement have the conviction or muscle to counter them. It is becoming increasingly difficult to hold any kind of free or fair elections. Once the Islamists take over directly or indirectly, a large section of the populace will be alienated, and another liberation movement will slowly emerge. At the right time, India will provide the necessary assistance and this time, no generous approach will be adopted at the time of settlement. This could include establishing enclaves for the minorities under Indian protection, which would allow the rest of Bangladesh to continue with the mess it might make for itself.
