US President Donald Trump has issued another ultimatum to Iran on the cessation of hostilities which has been worded in the most abusive and ‘communal’ terms. (Even a panchayat representative in India would not be able to survive in politics by using such language.) Trump is obviously desperate as things have gone out of his hands. It is not that the US is incapable of continuing with the war to some sort of genocidal conclusion, it is the consequences on its economy and the electoral fallout thereof that is proving a bother. The present threat being held out is destruction of Iran’s power plants and other infrastructure.
After its remarkable and unexpected performance thus far, Iran is in a position to negotiate an end to the conflict. It must grab the opportunity by getting into talks with the US courtesy the Gulf nations, who are the most affected. It is not necessary to concede to all the demands, just enough for Trump to save face. US allies everywhere have refused to participate in the war and must be rewarded for this by opening up of the Strait of Hormuz. It would relieve the pressure on the world economy and earn brownie points for Iran when it comes to receiving assistance in future rebuilding efforts.
On the other hand, if this opportunity is lost, it will be very difficult to come back. No matter how hard the ‘hostage’ countries are hit by Iran, the damage it will suffer will be enormous. It is not as if it is a situation similar to that in Vietnam or even Iraq – technology has taken fighting wars to levels where the need for ‘boots on the ground’ is very limited. How long do Iranian leaders believe their munitions will last even with possible Russian support? What good will result from being ‘sent back to the stone ages’, metaphorically speaking?
The impact on the region has already been quite devastating. The Gulf nations that were considered havens of peace and prosperity may not regain their earlier status. This would lead to a drop in the large amount of remittances that India earns from there. As oil importing nations begin to search for alternatives, the earnings of the Gulf are bound to drop. It is because of this that many countries, including India, are interacting with Iran in the bid to build an understanding. Hopefully, something positive will emerge at this very crucial point in the conflict.
