Pakistan, for some time now, has been getting a severe dose of its own medicine. Its political system is in collapse, with successive prime ministers falling foul of the military establishment. The military, itself, has overplayed its hand so badly that it is surrounded on all sides by hostile forces. The very concept of the theocratic state envisioned by Jinnah is in collapse.
From the time when attacks on other countries were orchestrated from within Pakistan, under the benign patronage of the United States, there is not a single part of the country that is not facing terrorism in most brutal forms in the present. Significantly, a number of the killings are being carried out by terror groups created or supported by the ISI.
Earlier, the pressure created by various kinds of internal strife was released by directing the blood-thirsty elements towards India. The biggest setback has been the shutdown imposed by India through economic, diplomatic and security measures thereby preventing use of this safety valve. Even China, faced with its own difficulties, is finding it hard to prop up this failing state. The economics of the ‘one belt, one road’ initiative is not just proving unviable, it is under regular attack from various terrorist groups.
Is there any way for Pakistan to pull itself out of this mess? Elections are due on 8 February, next year, but most mainstream parties are in complete disarray. The popular Imran Khan’s challenge has been completely decimated, with him languishing in jail. The traditional stakeholders, PML(N) and PPP, are also badly compromised having had many run-ins with the military. And, while, the military will do everything it can to influence the elections, it does not have many options. The danger is that the various Islamic Jamaats, which have been propped up by it in the past, might take centre-stage. They will be more difficult to control and would definitely take the nation further down the fundamentalist path. The success of the Taliban in Afghanistan and its increased interference in Pakistan could add further spice to the mix.
There are also the separatist movements in Baluchistan and the North-West, which have had political successes in the past. They too were targeted by the military. A fractured mandate is unlikely to provide the much-needed long-term direction to the country. Further collapse, particularly of the economy, bodes ill for the nation. The repercussions on the region will also not be good. India, in particular, needs to plan for the various contingencies that may emerge to achieve its strategic objectives.
