By BK Joshi
The purpose of this short piece is to raise some issues about the future course of development in the fragile Himalayan region based on what we can learn from the tragedy unfolding in some of our major urban centres, with Joshimath being the prime, but not the only, example.
Two things are quite clear. One, the problem in Joshimath did not arise overnight; it has been there for quite a while. It was first highlighted by the Committee headed by the then Commissioner of Garhwal, MC Mishra, which had been set up by the UP government to suggest measures to deal with the problem of land subsidence in the town as far back as 1976. The Committee highlighted the role of heavy construction projects undertaken after 1962, growing population and indiscriminate felling of trees in exacerbating the problem. Unfortunately, the Committee’s recommendations only gathered dust all these years.
Two, Joshimath is not alone in facing this problem, A number of other towns and villages in Uttarakhand, including iconic hill stations of Nainital and Mussoorie and towns such as Almora, Pauri are facing problems of land subsidence, vulnerability to landslides and excessive concrete construction that can, sooner or later, pose similar threats.
The issue ultimately boils down to identifying the appropriate strategy of development for the Himalayan region. It is well known that the Himalayas are an active mountain range with a long history of devastating earthquakes and other environmental disasters like the Kedarnath tragedy of 2013. Hence it is imperative that a proper balance between environment and development is struck. In recent years, in our race to emerge as “the most developed state” in the country we seem to have given a go-by to all environmental considerations while pursuing a slew of large-scale construction activities, be it the Char Dham all-weather road, Rishikesh to Karnaprayag rail line, or a number of hydro-power projects even at high altitudes. It is questionable whether the fragile mountain range can bear the consequences of such heavy construction.
The way out in my view is to approach development in the Himalayas within the framework of carrying capacity of the affected areas. Some months ago, it was reported that the Chief Minister of Uttarakhand announced that the state government has decided to undertake carrying capacity studies of “all hill towns”. We do not know what action, if any, has been taken in this matter after the announcement was made. Details on who will be undertaking these studies have also not been shared. Commenting on the decision Hugh and Colleen Gantzer (The Carrying Capacity Dilemma, Garhwal Post, January 17, 2023) have cautioned: “Clearly this is a formidable task if detailed carrying capacity studies are to be undertaken. If, however, meticulous surveys are not intended, then the whole exercise becomes a hollow, publicity-seeking stunt not worth the money spent on it.”
Admittedly, carrying capacity is a difficult concept to operationalise, especially in its application to human systems like urban areas as intended by the Uttarakhand government. We have to bear in mind that in its application to social/ human systems like cities and towns, as against natural systems like national parks and sanctuaries where it has been most commonly applied, carrying capacity is mediated by technology which can overcome constraints imposed by natural factors. For instance, if the availability of water for drinking and other uses is limited so that it imposes a limit on the maximum number of people that can be sustained in an area, this constraint can be overcome by tapping underground water or transporting water from a distant source either by gravity channels or by pumping. It is for this reason that we find that the size and population of cities and towns have been constantly increasing and new technologies are being deployed to make this expansion possible while also easing some of the problems arising out of incessant urban expansion – for example easing mobility by provision of different modes of public transport. Having said that, we have to recognise that there is a major difference in the situation of towns and cities in the Himalayan region and in the plains. The Himalayas being an active mountain system susceptible to landslides, earthquakes and various environmental stresses need to be approached with great caution. When our so-called development activities ignore or go against environmental constraints, we tend to court disaster leading to avoidable loss of life and property. Hence the need to pay attention to carrying capacity, and avoid unquestioning reliance on technology, in the case of Himalayas.
Not much work has been done in understanding the applicability and operationalisation of the concept of carrying capacity to human and social systems. Two good efforts from the past come to mind. One was a carrying capacity study of the Doon Valley conducted by a number of institutions led by the National Environmental Engineering Research Institute and sponsored by the Ministry of Environment, Government of India in 1996 or thereabout, and the other the study of carrying capacity of Mussoorie undertaken by the LBS National Academy of Administration. Both, however, fell short of putting a number, however tentative, to the carrying capacity of the areas under study. Nevertheless, it would be worthwhile to go back to these studies and seriously study their methodology and findings and applicability to the current situation of our towns and cities, with whatever refinement the present state of knowledge on the subject provides.
A real dilemma will confront us when any of the proposed studies conclude that the carrying capacity of an urban centre has been exceeded, as indeed we suspect they well might in relation to some major mountain towns. The question then will be: how do we deal with the situation? Can any town be decongested and the population dispersed? Can we muster the political will to do so? Admittedly these are difficult questions that will have to be faced at some stage as the Joshimath example demonstrates. It will require an enlightened political leadership commanding the support of, and connect with, public opinion to bring it about. Sadly, this is nowhere in sight at the moment.
The situation appears grim when we look at the situation of some of our hill towns in Uttarakhand: Mussoorie, Nainital, Almora, Pauri, Uttarkashi to name a few. These places have seen very high growth in population in recent years imposing a very heavy strain on civic facilities, availability of potable water, land for housing and other needs, roads and parking space to accommodate the burgeoning vehicular traffic. Unfortunately, with the decennial census due in 2021 not having been conducted, and still nowhere in sight, we have no idea of the actual growth of their population since 2011, the year of the last census. How then can we plan for better civic facilities and a decent urban living experience to the citizens without knowing the total population that has to be served? It is like shooting in the dark.
Unfortunately, some of the solutions that are being bandied about for our urban problems seem to promise further environmental disaster. These include a ropeway from Dehradun to Mussoorie to carry ever more people to the hill station in a short time, excavating tunnels in the mountains to provide parking for cars and buses, and reviving the long-abandoned proposal to connect Dehradun and Mussoorie by a railway line. Is it at all wise to encourage increasing numbers of people to visit hill stations like Mussoorie and Nainital which are already crowded and reeling under the weight of existing populations and tourists? A proposal that has been talked about but hardly pursued is creating alternative magnets to existing hill stations. Isn’t it time that this idea is seriously pursued? Even if we start today, it will take a couple of decades for the idea to take root. In the meantime, we have to seriously consider what an environmentally compatible development strategy for our mountain state entails.
(BK Joshi is former Vice Chancellor, Kumaon University and currently Honorary Director, Doon Library & Research Centre).
