The second goal of the Union Government has been achieved with the free and fair conduct of elections in Jammu and Kashmir. The first was full integration of the former state with abrogation of Article 370. The large turnout in the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections indicates that the population has realised it will have to move forward within this new context. The changes have ensured inclusion of all sections of society in the political process, not just the members of a particular community. Whichever parties form the government, they will be constrained to function primarily as Indians. It is upon this that the timing of restoration of statehood will depend.
As a political party, the BJP seeks to make gains in the Jammu region and increase its votes in the Kashmir valley. How much it has succeeded will become known after the results are announced. Even though exit polls were greatly discredited in their predictions regarding the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, going by their present assessment, the combination of two mainstream parties, the National Conference and the Congress, may get the most assembly seats. The fact that separatist parties and even the banned outfits participated, the latter as independents, shows that the objective of furthering democracy has been largely achieved. If every section of the political spectrum gets a place in the assembly, it will further the cause. It is an irony that the NC, Congress and the PDP, which played both sides of the game in the past, now describe the separatists as the ‘B’ team of the BJP.
It is rarely that larger national issues play a role in assembly elections. Voters have local concerns that they want resolved. This is the difference between the J&K contest and that in Haryana. In the latter, ten years of BJP rule will be judged on the basis of performance on the ground. Analysts tend to generalise matters, presenting voters as blocs comprising communities and castes. Do Jats, for instance, vote en bloc no matter if they belong to the middle, lower middle, working classes, or agriculturists, professionals, etc.? Are the issues raised by the opposition such as farm laws, unemployment and wrestlers’ protests the primary concern, or will people judge on the basis of their local MLA’s performance? It may be that people are tired of the present set-up regardless of the high-profile issues. So, how would the mandate be judged in the national perspective? Perhaps a better picture will emerge after the polls in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.