Two security personnel made the supreme sacrifice in J&K’s Anantnag District on Saturday, including one from Uttarakhand, in an encounter with terrorists. This is part of a series of incidents that have taken place ever since there have been indications of assembly elections taking place and J&K having its statehood status restored. Pakistan has been greatly disturbed by the healthy turnout in the Union Territory during the Lok Sabha contest and does not want a repeat during the assembly elections. It knows very well that this would be indicative of people’s mandate for not just the improved circumstances in J&K but also a thumbs up for Indian nationhood.
As such, the Indian security forces will have to gird up for an even further increase in terrorist incidents till at least the election process is completed. Taking pre-emptive measures across the Line of Control may also be considered but it is for the strategists to decide whether it would be conducive or not to a free and fair poll. Perhaps, measures could be adopted at the tactical level to counter incursions till after the polls are concluded.
The purpose of the Pakistanis is not just to disrupt the elections, it is also to influence local politics. In the political sense, J&K is going through a churn with the traditional parties losing ground to new forces. Not only is the feudal approach under challenge, but the new leaders are also adopting a more pragmatic approach towards New Delhi. They recognise the reality on the ground and do not wish to lose out on all the new opportunities becoming available to the region from the overall economic surge taking place. Also, the extremist mindset is becoming further marginalised, although it remains a force in some parts of Kashmir.
It is obvious that predicting election results, particularly if these emerge from healthy participation by the electorate, is a risky task, so the exact mandate cannot be predicted. Yet, considering the many divides, including the one between the Jammu and Kashmir regions, it will likely result in the need for a coalition government. Considering how someone like Omar Abdullah had to face defeat in the Lok Sabha contest, it is probable that new candidates will emerge for the Chief Minister’s post. The Election Commission is presently preparing for the elections and a clearer picture will emerge in the coming days, under the protection of the heroes who guard not just the Nation, but also Democracy.
