Although it is difficult in the present climate of uncertainty to predict whether the ceasefire announced between Israel and Iran will hold, the very fact that both nations have agreed to it is reason for optimism. There is no doubt that the support provided to Israel by the US with the attack on Iran’s nuclear sites will have played a major role. Also, President Donald Trump’s MAGA base has been very vocal on keeping the US out of wars in other countries and needed to be heard.
The countries of West Asia and, indeed, in other parts of the world will be feeling greatly relieved as the prospect of having sea and air routes closed for trade and travel would have proved exceedingly costly for their economies. The fact that the Indian stock market climbed sharply after the announcement is indicative of the jitters that were being experienced.
It seems that the ‘escalation-de-escalation’ model, of which Operation Sindoor was an excellent example, will be the preferred mode of settling disputes in the future – strong messages of resolve being communicated across borders to dissuade those who violate international protocols. Israel did need to punish Iran for its long-term proxy war against it but could not possibly have expected to defeat it in an all-out war. Unfortunately, however, the Gaza situation is nowhere near resolution and innocent lives continue to be lost. Despite the damage inflicted on the Gazans, Israel has not been able to obtain the release of its citizens being held hostage.
It may be noted how public opinion forced Trump to limit US involvement to the barest minimum. Unfortunately, this only has an impact in democracies. Hamas does not depend on electoral support to continue with its terror campaign. Nor does Vladimir Putin face any such pressure. This is why all nations must function according to the will of their peoples, if the world is to be kept safe from war. Countries that recurrently resort to quoting UN rules and international protocols for their advantage should also adhere to at least minimum accountability to their people in their internal functioning. It may be noted that nations facing civil wars on an almost perpetual basis are those where power has been acquired through violence. As such, as a global community, pressure should be maintained on undemocratically installed regimes to adopt democratic practices so that basic human rights are ensured to all citizens. Iran, for instance, may be respected as a sovereign nation, but its treatment of women is a cause of concern. It may have been spared the consequences of war, but it remains an outlier in the community of nations.
