By Satish Aparajit
One wonders how to describe or define a person of the calibre of a US President who seems compelled to blow his own trumpet at all times. One is left perplexed—does this man truly possess the ability to take decisions, or is he an inscrutable strategist beyond comprehension? The only historical parallel that comes to mind is Mohammad bin Tughlaq—though even he merely shifted capitals, not his decisions every single day.
It has been a pattern of YES followed by NO, then perhaps YES again, and soon after another NO. Tariffs announced at one percentage in the morning are revised by the next day. Some countries suddenly benefit from unexpected generosity, with tariffs reduced—even to zero. The pattern becomes clearer, especially in the backdrop of the ongoing tensions with Iran.
Iran has been repeatedly warned, with deadlines imposed: if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened, the country would face destruction severe enough to send it back to the Stone Age. As deadlines approach, they are extended—ten more days, then further warnings of annihilation. As I write this, yet another threat emerges: “The entire civilisation will be wiped out, never to return.” One wonders if even this will change overnight. Indeed, by the time I woke up, the deadline had already been extended—this time by two weeks, under the guise of a ceasefire. The rhetoric continues unabated. One wonders if this ceasefire will last for two weeks, wait and watch.
Iran, meanwhile, continues to defend itself against formidable odds. The US and Israel likely did not anticipate such resilience. The frustration is evident, to the extent that the leader in question has resorted to using foul language publicly—dropping expletives without restraint. It is perhaps unprecedented for the head of such a powerful nation to do so without remorse.
Mary Trump, his niece, describes him as “a sociopath who suffers from Narcissistic Personality Disorder, along with a long undiagnosed learning disability”. Notably, she holds a doctorate in clinical psychology.
There is also the larger geopolitical concern. The US appears increasingly anxious about China’s rapid ascent and the potential erosion of its global dominance. The sanctity of the Petro Dollar is under pressure. History reminds us how the mighty Pound Sterling lost its supremacy after World War II. This conflict will provide an opportunity for nations to move toward trading in their own currencies.
Iran, in many ways, is gaining global sympathy—even among sections of the American public. There are murmurs of dissent within US military circles as well. Reports suggest that several generals have resisted orders for on ground invasion, while veterans caution against unlawful military engagement and to defy illogical orders.
Potential Global Impact
- Oil prices are likely to surge, pushing many economies into crisis due to high costs and supply disruptions.
- Severe shortages of gas could emerge globally.
- Food prices will rise, with agriculture taking a major hit—similar to the aftermath of the 1973 Israel–Egypt war—possibly even leading to famine in some regions.
- NATO’s unity may weaken if member nations diverge from US policy, potentially threatening the alliance itself.
- The Petro Dollar could face serious challenges, impacting the US economy significantly. The possibility of internal unrest in the US cannot be ruled out.
- Any use of nuclear weapons would have catastrophic consequences, potentially wiping out large portions of humanity.
- Disruption of internet cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz could bring global systems to a standstill.
- Environmental devastation from nuclear conflict would be irreversible and catastrophic.
- Even in defeat, Iran could mine the Strait of Hormuz, halting maritime traffic and plunging the global economy into chaos, with oil prices reaching unprecedented levels.
In Indian astrology, Rahu and Ketu are often seen as shadow forces influencing chaos and confusion. One might be tempted to believe such forces are at play in shaping these erratic decisions of the Satan.
Yet, there is another perspective. Perhaps he sees himself—or is seen by some—as a chosen one, much like imperfect figures in history who were believed to serve divine purpose. King David was not flawless, yet was chosen. Similarly, one could argue that this leader, despite his imperfections, believes he is acting to protect Jews from extermination or dismantle global threats like terrorism. Iran, like Pakistan, is often accused of being a hub for such activities, with groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis receiving financial and military hardware support.
Iran, despite being a non-nuclear state, has managed to withstand pressure from two nuclear powers and compel a ceasefire on its own terms—something one could interpret as a strategic victory. There may indeed be lessons here for our netas (policymakers and administrators).
In the end, one is reminded of Sahir Ludhianvi’s timeless words, which seem profoundly relevant in the prevailing situation in the world today:-
Khuda e bartar teri zamin par
O supreme God, on your earth,
Zamin ke khatir ye jung kyon hai?
For the sake of earth, why is this war?
Har ek fatah O zafar ke daaman pe
On the hem of every victory and triumph,
Khun ae insan ka rang kyon hai? Why is the colour of human blood?
Zamin bhi teri, hum bhi tere,
The land is yours, and we are yours too,
Ye malkiat ka sawal kya hai
Then what is this question of ownership?
Ye katl O khun ka riwaz kya hai
Why is this custom of killing and bloodshed?
Ye rasm ye jung O jadal kya hai
What is this tradition of war and conflict?
(Satish Aparajit is a retired Wing Commander and Shaurya Chakra awardee.)
