Healthy turnouts were reported in the states where polling took place on Thursday. While this is partly because of the high stakes involved, the removal of ‘non-existent voters’ from the rolls is also a reason. Lower percentages were reported in the past because this section obviously did not turn out to vote. It will be possible now to not only provide more accurate numbers, but also record the actual level of involvement within the electorate. This will make poll analysis easier not just for psephologists, but also the political parties.
In the case of Keralam, however, the ongoing crisis in West Asia has meant a large number of voters living overseas may not have been able to make it home. Otherwise, the enthusiasm among the people to choose their government has been very visible.
The stakes in all the states are high, particularly as the incumbency factor is strong. Assam, Keralam and Puducherry have entrenched governments that, technically, ought to be facing anti-incumbency. However, weaknesses in the opposition parties and coalitions also exist. While it is expected that, in Assam, lower margins of victory may be witnessed, the BJP seems to retain the lead. In Keralam, also, the Congress led UDF does not seem to have properly exploited probable anti-incumbency against the ruling LDF. The increased popularity of the BJP could possibly throw a spanner in the works by upsetting calculations.
Results will become known only after polling takes place later in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, which will make the waiting period even more tense. The political import of Assam and Keralam will be less, as the contests are largely along traditional lines. However, in Bengal and Tamil Nadu, the established ideological structure of the states is under challenge. While Mamata Banerjee’s TMC has prospered on the basis of what is considered ‘secular appeasement’ and, now, pitched on Bengali identity, the DMK’s interpretation of Dravidian ideology is under challenge – not just by traditional rivals such as the AIADMK, but also the new TVK constituted by film star Vijay. While Vijay may upset the vote equation, the inroads made by the BJP may also influence the result. Whom it will benefit remains unpredictable and will become known only after the results are out.
The BJP, overall, will need not only to win where it is the incumbent – Assam and Puducherry – but also have an impact in the other states if it is to continue to dominate in national politics. For it, the contest is between nationalism and radical regionalism. It needs to score enough points to stay relevant.
