World War III – Is It On?

By Soumitra Banerji

Fed on Commando Comics…World War Movies…Documentaries; the World War Definitions have taken a shape. Cast in stone. A two side Battle…one Good (Allies) against one Evil (Axis). Depending on which Historian is analysing the war and its stakeholder.

Then images and war photographs of the combat amongst men on foot – The Infantry…The Tanks rolling down on undulating European Terrain…the German Luftwaffe releasing Messerschmitt Bf 109 and Focke-Wulf Fw 190 Fighters into the Air…Explosions of Bombs from Tanks and air…killing by Bayonets and Bullets…carpet bombing…trenches with different shapes of Helmets popping out, identifying the Axis or Allies.

Replication of World War II carried on in various specific Country to Country conflicts…Indo-Pak, Indo China as examples near to home.

But then Nuclear Powers multiplied, giving the US august company. Also making Military strategists factor in the annihilation of life with one single use by any war crazy extremists. Hence, rationalists started devising a cunning and indirect approach to warfare. A global conflict today stands completely redefined –

1. The Rise of Proxy Wars and Indirect Approaches
   • Avoiding Direct Confrontation: With the advent of nuclear weapons, direct military confrontation between major powers carries an existential risk. This has pushed conflicts into the realm of Proxy Wars, where powerful nations support opposing factions in a third country without engaging their own forces directly.
   • Blurred Lines: The lines between state and non-state actors are increasingly blurred. Major powers might arm, train, or fund insurgent groups, militias, or even terrorist organisations to achieve their objectives, making it ever so difficult to attribute actions directly to a State.
   • Economic and Political Warfare: Beyond Military Proxies, Nations engage in extensive economic and political warfare. This includes sanctions, trade wars, currency manipulation, diplomatic isolation; and influencing internal political processes of other countries.

2. Hybrid Warfare
   • Multi-Domain Conflict: Hybrid Warfare integrates conventional military actions with unconventional tactics across multiple domains:
     1. Cyber Warfare: Hacking critical infrastructure, spreading disinformation, disrupting communication networks. This can have widespread economic and social consequences without a single shot being fired.
     2. Information/Disinformation Warfare: Manipulating public opinion, spreading propaganda, creating deepfakes; and undermining trust in institutions. This can destabilise societies from within.

• Economic Coercion: Using Economic Leverage to pressure or punish states.

1. Grey Zone Tactics: Actions that fall below the threshold of declared war, making it difficult to trigger traditional military responses or international legal frameworks.

• Attribution Challenges: The nature of hybrid warfare makes attribution difficult; further complicating the decision-making process for states and international bodies.

3. Globalisation and Interconnectedness:
   • Global impact of Local Conflicts: Due to Globalisation, a conflict in one region can have far-reaching economic, social and political consequences across the globe (e.g. energy prices, supply chain disruptions, refugee crises)
   • Transnational Threats: Non-State actors like terrorist groups or cyber criminals can operate globally; posing threats that transcend national borders and requiring international cooperation to address.
4. Ideological and Systemic Rivalries:
   • Beyond Land and Resources: Contemporary global conflicts are often driven by deep-seated ideological differences and systemic rivalries (e.g. democracy vs authoritarianism, different economic models). These rivalries manifest in competition for influence, technological dominance and norm-setting in international relations.
   • Techno-Geopolitics: The Arms Race is now fought with Algorithms, Microchips, and Data. Control over critical technologies like AI, Semiconductors and 5G networks has become a strategic battleground.

Given these shifts, a WORLD WAR in the 21^st century might not involve massed armies clashing on battlefields across continents as in the WWI and WWII… With no formal declaration of a beginning or a start date.

Going through these signs and symptoms aren’t we waging WWIII??

(Soumitra Banerji is an acclaimed Indian author and writer, best known for his thought-provoking novel ” Liminal Tides”.)