By Dr Kripa Nautiyal
The recent devastating earthquake that struck Myanmar and Thailand, claiming hundreds of lives and causing widespread destruction, serves as a stark reminder of the potential catastrophe that could befall Dehradun and the wider Uttarakhand region, which sits in one of India’s most seismically active zones.
Uttarakhand has a long and troubling history of seismic activity. The region falls within Seismic Zones IV and V of India’s earthquake zoning map, categorising it as a high to very high-risk area. Dehradun itself, nestled in the Doon Valley between the Himalayas and the Shivalik range, lies in Seismic Zone IV. Notable earthquakes that have affected the region include the 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake (magnitude 6.8), the 1999 Chamoli earthquake (magnitude 6.5), and tremors from the catastrophic 2015 Nepal earthquake that caused panic throughout Uttarakhand. Historical records also show significant seismic events in 1720 and 1803 that devastated large parts of the region.
Due to its location in the seismic zone, the entire Himalayan arc remains under tremendous tectonic stress and danger of a major earthquake striking with ferocious magnitude are ever present. The devastation due to shifting of building regulations in Dehradun to allow high rises could be unimaginable.
Until the early 2000s, construction in Dehradun was largely limited to two or three floors, with stringent building codes enforced to mitigate earthquake risks. The Department responsible for granting approvals for buildings had clear guidelines restricting building heights and mandating specific structural requirements for earthquake resistance.
However, the landscape began changing dramatically around 2015 when modifications to building bylaws permitted increased height limits. Today, buildings of 10-15 floors are becoming increasingly common across the city, raising serious concerns among geologists and disaster management experts.
There are specific codes for adherence to specific foundation depths, structural designs, and material quality suited for high seismic zones. These codes, though in force, their implementation has remained doubtful.
The approval process should be made more stringent. Soil testing reports are sometimes copied from one project to another. Care should be taken so that structural safety certificates are issued only after proper verification, otherwise, we are inviting a disaster which is waiting to happen. A magnitude 7 or greater earthquake, which is entirely possible in this region, would create devastation beyond imagination if buildings aren’t constructed to withstand such forces. In a major earthquake scenario, poorly constructed high-rises would be the first to collapse, potentially causing thousands of casualties as was witnessed in recent the earthquake in Mynamar and Thailand. Additionally, I have witnessed a recent trend, particularly in Turner Road, Clement Town area, wherein big bungalows are sold and then demolished, and the area is subsequently sold in small plots. These smaller plots construct houses from wall to wall. In the event of an earthquake, this will make rescue efforts nearly impossible in such congested areas which will lead to higher casualty ratio.
In order to be better prepared to counter the eventuality of an earthquake disaster, some remedial measures such as immediate structural audit of all buildings above four floors constructed in the last decade, temporary suspension of new high-rise approvals until a revised safety framework is implemented, formation of an independent technical committee to review approval processes, mandatory earthquake insurance for all new constructions and public awareness campaigns about earthquake preparedness could be helpful in the long run.
The Myanmar-Thailand earthquake is yet another reminder of nature’s power. Uttarakhand must choose between unplanned development and the safety of its citizens. As Dehradun continues its rapid transformation from a quaint hill station to a bustling urban centre, the question remains whether this growth will be tempered with wisdom or whether short-term gains will prevail over long-term safety. Additionally, as Dehradun stands at this critical juncture of development, citizens, experts, and authorities must come together to ensure that the city’s growth doesn’t compromise its safety. The lessons from recent earthquakes across Asia should serve as urgent reminders that nature doesn’t compromise—our building standards shouldn’t either. The choice facing Uttarakhand today is clear: prioritise robust infrastructure and strict compliance now, or risk paying an unimaginable price when the earth inevitably shakes.
(The author is a retired Additional Director General of the Indian Coast Guard. He has participated in a number of disaster mitigation operations, including Tsunami 2005 in India, Maldives and Sri Lanka. He is an alumnus of United States Naval War College, Rhode Island, and has a master’s degree in disaster management.)
