Most political analysts are of the opinion that the coming Lok Sabha contest will be decided by India’s burgeoning middle class. Political parties have more or less perfected the art of corralling voters on the basis of caste, region and community by pandering to their identity interests and co-opting their leaders. However, the emerging middle class, which includes those recently out of low-income status and increasingly urbanised cannot be so easily bracketed. They are less inclined to adopt a herd mentality and are more aware of their individual interests. Since everybody is differently situated, these interests can vary considerably. It will, therefore, not be easy to get the people’s support through lazy, catch-all giveaways.
It is also generally acknowledged that the present Modi dispensation is solidly in place largely because of this section of society. It will take a lot to shake this support but not impossible. In the present circumstances, the BJP will have to be careful that the middle class is not alienated by the over-zealousness of groups that advocate policies that might threaten the desire for stability, security, economic growth and social harmony amongst this votebank. It is not unusual for such fringe groups to feel encouraged to boost their activities because of BJP’s electoral successes. In the present highly competitive environment, electoral victories require very careful targeting and constituency-wise management. There is absolutely no one-size fits all approach, even if it is promotion of zealous Hindutva. The middle class, in particular, given its varied background in the country, would like matters to be more nuanced and sophisticated.
Similarly, the opposition’s recently hyped emphasis on caste and regional identity will also put off this crucial section of society. As it is, in the aspirational scenario of the present, it is difficult to negotiate past these inherited obstacles. Why would any person want to complicate it further merely to bring others to power? The tendency to stay clear of the herd mentality as much as possible is what offers hope for Indian democracy. Those who recognise that Indian politics has become more moderate and conservative are the ones more likely to succeed at the hustings.
