INDI Alliance leaders Nitish Kumar and Mamata Banerjee have expressed the apprehension that Lok Sabha elections could be announced for the end of this year. They clearly believe that PM Modi would do this to deny the alliance the time needed for finalising its electoral strategy and seat allocation among parties. They may also be doing this to generate some sense of urgency in their forthcoming meeting in Mumbai. They want a quick decision on these issues before possible Congress victories in coming state elections could strengthen that party’s negotiating position.
Should Modi be bothered about the possibility of the bloc succeeding in resolving its many contradictions and putting up a programme of action attractive to the voters? Or, should he wait for the natural contradictions to play their role, particularly as the likes of Nitish, Mamata, Akhilesh Yadav are vulnerable on many fronts? It should not be forgotten that, in the context of the Lok Sabha elections, Modi remains by far the most favoured choice for Prime Minister. If it were a presidential form of election, he would win hands down. The opposition hopes to pit single candidates against the BJP in every constituency to consolidate their votes. That will, indeed, be a very difficult, if not impossible task. It is also not certain that parties will be able to transfer their votes to the designated party, as many of their voters may choose the BJP as their next preference. Modi also could be concerned about foreign interference in the elections and may seek to preempt such efforts by changing the timeline.
The Prime Minister also has some big ticket items coming up that are bound to influence voters – such as the inauguration of the Ramjanmabhoomi Temple in Ayodhya, slated for February, next year. He also has certain tasks to complete that cannot be left for the next term. This includes putting the finishing touches to J&K’s transformation, such as maybe restoration of statehood status and holding of elections. A number of initiatives are also expected to boost the economy further by next year.
At the same time, the statements by Nitish and Mamata reveal their acceptance that the BJP election machinery is already well prepared for battle. By comparison, the Alliance is still at the basic level, confronted by questions such as the possible candidate for Prime Minister. All this adds further masaala to the ongoing maneuvering for power and relevance.
