By Soumitra Banerji
The Philosophy of Sun Tzu, an essential ingredient of ‘The Art of War’ framework; a basic template of China’s growing frontline influence, has been so evident in India’s northern, western and eastern borders that we should now be on an auto-transmission mode in driving initiatives…diplomatic, administrative as well as Defence Counterstrategies.
The philosophy of Sun Tzu, as articulated in ‘The Art of War’, is deeply ingrained in Chinese strategic thinking, though its application in contemporary geopolitics is nuanced and often indirect. It is less about a literal checklist and more about a foundational mindset that permeates various aspects of Chinese strategies.
The core principles of Sun Tzu and their potential adaptations in the current scenarios are:
- The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting (This doesn’t mean China avoids conflict entirely, but it prioritises strategies that achieve objectives with minimal direct military engagement and cost. This can manifest as:
- Economic Coercion: Using trade, investment and debt to influence other nations’ policies and create dependencies. The BRI (Belt & Road Initiative), both in Pakistan as well as in Bangladesh, now, can be seen through this lens…creating Economic leverage.
- Diplomatic Maneuvering: Employing skillful negotiation, alliances and international forums to isolate adversaries and build consensus for China’s goals.
- Information Warfare and Propaganda: Shaping narratives, influencing public opinion, undermining the will of adversaries through media and cyber operations…The concept of ‘Three Warfares’ (public opinion, psychological and legal warfare) aligns with this.
- Gray Zone Tactics: Employing ambiguous actions that fall below the threshold of conventional warfare. Achieve strategic gains without triggering a direct military response. (Placing Spy Ships in India’s neighbourhood is a classic example)
- All warfare is based on deception (This principle emphasises the importance of masking intentions, creating diversions and exploiting the enemy misperceptions. This includes building covert capabilities or using Proxies…which is what is happening in Pakistan…and has now begun in Bangladesh.
- Know your enemy and know yourself; and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster (This emphasises the importance of intelligence gathering and self-assessment…which is why China, or its Proxy has invested heavily in this sphere.)
The imprint of Sun Tzu has been so very evident in Pakistan’s nervousness in exceeding the threshold to the redline of warfare…which is why it is better to ‘Bleed India with a Thousand Cuts’ rather than go for full scale warfare to achieve objectives.
For China, Pakistan was, is and would remain more of a Frontline Buffer Asset, which has been cultivated as one of the most successful experiments within the Sun Tzu Framework.
Pakistan helped them at their own vision by being one of the first few countries recognising the People’s Republic of China (PRC) way back in 1950, shifting diplomatic ties from the Republic of China (Taiwan). Further they made the ultimate sacrifice of ceding the Shaksgam Valley to China…in the disputed Kashmir region…an area claimed by India (Sino Pakistani Agreement of 1963). Although this magnanimity arose out of a common suspicion towards a common foe…India; but it was a crucial step, as it demonstrated a willingness to cooperate and settle contentious issues, laying the foundation for a stronger relationship.
In essence, the China-Pakistan axis emerged from a convergence of strategic interests, primarily stemming from a shared perception of India as a regional power and a desire to counter its influence through the resolution of border disputes, consistent diplomatic support in keeping the Kashmir issue alive through a successful joint propaganda internationally, Nuclear cooperation, China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CEPC), BRI (Belt Road Initiative), supporting Pakistan’s Deep State initiative through a Terrorists Frontline…and it carries on.
China wanted Pakistan as an ‘All Weather Proxy’ and Pakistan wanted China as a strong and stable backend in its bleeding of India. Sun Tzu was successfully in action…Controlling India was the singular objective.
Now, especially after the exit of Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League, which has been closely tracked and supported by the ‘All Weather Friends’ of old…China-Pakistan…a third component to the China-Pakistan Axis is seen to be assembling. The China-Pakistan-Bangladesh Axis is in the process of birth…labour pains can be felt in the Indian corridors of power. The ‘String of Pearls’ strategy of China is taking shape.
Although, the past geopolitical links of China and unified Pakistan, pre-1971 would not have any positive nuances…India’s proximity would surely be more on account of her role in the genesis of Bangladesh…yet China’s persistent economic, infrastructural and defence support, diplomacy and influence of a Superpower neighbour is slowly taking root. Muhammad Yunus’s coming to power as the CEO of the Caretaker Government has only hastened the process of the Pakistan-China-Bangladesh Axis. With this transition of power in Bangladesh, she is looking at Pakistan from China’s eyes and approach.
Yet again the philosophy of Sun Tzu haunts, with larger ambitions of the larger axis towards the geopolitics of an equally disturbed Seven Sisters; along with the already existing J&K boil.
The act of our Government is clearly cut out…We are not dealing with three Nations…Just ONE…China. Sustained focus needs to be there. Growing Trust, Benefits and Mutual Feeling of Security between these two big Powers; as also imaginative and strategic arm-twisting, would automatically make the two arms of the Axis redundant.
(Soumitra Banerji is an acclaimed Indian author and writer, best known for his thought-provoking novel “Liminal Tides”.)
